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SOLAR GENERATION V -
2008
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Global Status of Solar
Photovoltaics
The solar electricity market is booming. By the end of 2007,
the cumulative installed capacity of solar photovoltaic (PV)
systems around the world had reached more than 9,200 MW.
This compares with a figure of 1,200 MW at the end of 2000.
Installations of PV cells and modules around the world have
been growing at an average annual rate of more than 35%
since 1998.
Such has been the growth in the solar electricity industry
that it is now worth more than an annual € 13 billion.
Competition among the major manufacturers has become
increasingly intense, with new players entering the market
as the potential for PV opens up. The worldwide
photovoltaics industry, particularly in Europe, the USA,
China and Japan, is investing heavily in new production
facilities and technologies. At the same time, political
support for the development of solar electricity has led to
far-reaching promotional frameworks being put in place in a
number of countries, notably Germany, Spain, Italy, France,
South Korea, USA, etc.
Since the first edition of Solar Generation was published in
2001, the global PV market has continued to expand at more
than the rate then predicted (see table below). Although in
some countries progress has been slower than expected,
others have exceeded expectations. The German market in
particular has consistently performed at the upper limit of
its projected expansion rate. Other countries outside the
OECD nations are also showing their determination to develop
a solar-powered future.
This clear commercial and political commitment to the
expansion of the PV industry means that the current surge of
activity in the solar electricity sector represents merely a
foretaste of the massive transformation and expansion
expected to occur over the coming decades. The target: the
realisation of a common goal of substantially increasing the
penetration of solar electricity into the global energy mix,
whilst also cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
Much work still needs to be done to turn potential into
reality. One crucial step is to bring a far broader range of
actors into the sector, particularly in the investment,
finance, marketing and retail areas. At the same time, there
is a need to transmit to as wide an audience as possible,
the message that solar electricity will bring
socio-economic, industrial and environmental benefits to
regions which proactively encourage its uptake.
Solar Generation: A
Projection to 2030
Numerous qualitative analyses about the potential market
development of solar photovoltaics have been published in
the past. The aim here has been to compile a detailed
quantitative knowledge base, coupled with clearly defined
and realistic assumptions from which extrapolations could be
made on the likely development of the solar electricity
market up to 2030 and beyond.
Taking its lead from success stories like those in Germany
or Spain, this EPIA/Greenpeace report looks forward to what
solar power could achieve - given the right market
conditions and an anticipated fall in costs – over the first
three decades of the twenty-first century. As well as
projections for installed capacity and energy output, it
makes assessments of the level of investment required, the
number of jobs which would be created, and the crucial
effect which an increased input from solar electricity will
have on greenhouse gas emissions.
This scenario for the year 2030, is based on the following
core inputs:
 PV
market development over recent years, both globally and in
specific regions
National and regional market support programmes
National targets for PV installations and manufacturing
capacity
The
potential for PV in terms of solar irradiation, the
availability of suitable roof space and the demand for
electricity in areas not connected to the grid
The following assumptions
have been employed:
Global electricity consumption: Two different assumptions
are made for the expected growth in electricity demand. The
reference version is based on the International Energy
Agency’s latest World Energy Outlook (WEO 2007). An
alternative version is based on the Greenpeace/European
Renewable Energy Council Energy [R]evolution Report, which
assumes extensive energy efficiency measures. The PV
contribution is therefore higher under this projection.
Carbon dioxide savings: Over the whole scenario period, it
is estimated that an average of 0.6 kg of CO2 would be saved
per kilowatt hour of output from a solar generator.
There are two versions of the scenario: an Advanced Scenario
based on the assumption that additional support mechanisms
will lead to dynamic worldwide growth; a Moderate Scenario
which assumes a continuing but lower level of political
commitment. The growth rates assumed in these scenarios vary
from 40% reducing to 15% over the scenario period (2030)
under the Advanced version, 30% reducing to 10% under the
Moderate version.
The two scenario versions are also divided in two ways –
into the four main global market divisions (consumer
applications, grid-connected, remote industrial and off-grid
rural), and into the regions of the world as defined in
projections of future electricity demand made by the
International Energy Agency.
Solar Generation:
Key Results of the EPIA/Greenpeace Analysis
The key results of the EPIA/Greenpeace scenario clearly show
that, even from a relatively low baseline, solar electricity
has the potential to make a major contribution to both
future global electricity supply and the mitigation of
climate change. The figures below are for the Advanced
Scenario:
Solar Generation: PV’s
Contribution to Global Electricity Supply
The EPIA/Greenpeace Advanced Scenario shows that by the year
2030, PV systems could be generating approximately 2,600 TWh
of electricity around the world. This means that, assuming a
serious commitment is made to energy efficiency, enough
solar power would be produced globally in twenty-five years’
time to satisfy the electricity needs of almost 14% of the
world’s population.
The capacity of annually installed solar power systems would
reach 281 GW by 2030. About 60% of this would be in the
grid-connected market, mainly in industrialised countries.
The total number of people by then covering their own
electricity from a gridconnected solar system would reach
1,280 million.
Although the key markets are currently located mainly in the
industrialised world, a global shift will result in a
significant share – about 20% or an annual market of 56 GW –
being taken by the developing world for rural
electrification in 2030. Since system sizes are much
smaller, and the population density greater, this means that
up to 3.2 billion people in developing countries would by
then be using solar electricity. This would represent a
major breakthrough for the technology from its present
emerging status.
Solar Generation:
PV’s Contribution to Industry, Employment and the
Environment
As the annual PV market could grow to 281 GW, the PV
industry is facing great chances. For the job seekers of the
third decade of the 21st century, there would be a major
contribution towards their employment prospects. On the
assumption that more jobs are created in the installation
and servicing of PV systems than in their manufacture, the
result is that by 2030, around 10 million full-time jobs
would have been created by the development of solar power
around the world. The majority of those would be in
installation and marketing.
By 2030, solar PV would also have had one other important
effect. In environmental terms, it would be reducing annual
CO2 emissions by 1.6 billion t. This reduction is equivalent
to the output from 450 coalfired power plants. Cumulative
CO2 savings from solar electricity generation would have
reached a level of 9 billion t.
Policy Recommendations
In order to supply more than 3 billion
people with solar electricity by the year 2030, a major
shift in energy policy will be needed. Experience over the
past few years has demonstrated the effectiveness of joint
industrial and political commitment to achieving greater
penetration of solar electricity into the energy mix at
local, national, regional and global levels.
A number of key political actions are required:
Firstly, growth of the world annual PV market to a level of
281 GW by 2030 will only be achieved through the extension
of best-practice support schemes, appropriately adapted to
local circumstances, to encourage the uptake of solar
electricity amongst consumers. The German and Japanese
experiences highlight the impact which such actions can
have. In Europe, the feed-in tariff has proved to be the
most effective market support mechanism for renewable
energy, including solar PV.
Secondly, the inherent barriers to the take-up of solar
power - and the subsidies available to fossil and nuclear
fuels which currently penalise renewable sources - must be
removed.
Thirdly, a variety of legally-enforced mechanisms must be
implemented which secure and accelerate the new market for
solar photovoltaics.
Our goal now must be to mobilise the necessary
industrial, political and end-user commitment to this
technology and, more importantly, the services it provides.
We must redouble our efforts to ensure that the generation
born today benefits from all the socio-economic and
environmental benefits that solar electricity offers.
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