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SOLAR GENERATION V - 2008

Executive Summary
Part 1: Solar Basics
Part 2: The Solar Power Market
Part 3: The Solar Future
Part 4: Costs and Competitiveness
Part 5: Solar Benefits
Part 6: Policy Drivers










 


The feed-in tariff: driver of Europe’s solar success story

It is evident that without the support of suitable instruments, the expansion of the worldwide solar electricity market will not happen at sufficient speed. In order to accelerate the reconstruction of our electricity supply system, it is necessary to implement powerful and efficient tools supporting the use of solar electricity. Over a number of years, the premium feed-in tariff has proved its power and efficiency in developing new markets.

Worldwide, people are surprised by the fact that Germany, a country which is not one of the sunniest places in the world, has developed the most dynamic solar electricity market and a flourishing PV industry. How could this happen? Many different types of programmes have been tried in many countries in the past, in order to accelerate the PV market, but none has been as successful in such a short period of time as the feed-in tariff in Germany. The idea has been adapted for use in other European states, with each country adjusting the system according to its specific needs. Extending such feed-in tariff mechanisms beyond Germany is a cornerstone of the European Photovoltaic Industry Association’s strategy for promoting the uptake of solar electricity in Europe. The simplicity of the concept, and its low administrative costs, mean that it is a highly effective tool for boosting the contribution of solar electricity in national energy mixes.

The basic idea behind a feed-in tariff is very simple. Producers of solar electricity

✜ have the right to feed solar electricity into the public grid
✜ receive a premium tariff per generated kWh reflecting the benefits of solar electricity compared to electricity generated from fossil fuels or nuclear power
✜ receive the premium tariff over a fixed period of time

All three aspects are simple, but it took significant effort to establish them. For many years, the power utilities did not allow the input of solar electricity into their grid and this is still the case in many countries even today. Therefore, that right cannot be taken for granted, and will need to be argued for, when facing the likely continued opposition of utilities.

Feed-in tariff: A temporary measure to develop the market

As the chapter on costs has already explained, feed-in tariffs are a temporary measure to develop the competitiveness that will result from economies of scale. Competitiveness with conventional electricity sources will be reached in different regions at different times. Feed-in tariff systems therefore need to be adapted to national conditions. However, it is important that tariffs are paid over a period of roughly 20 years from the day the system is connected to the grid, because the costs will be related to the initial investment. In some years’ time, investment costs will be low enough that they can be paid off without using the support of premium feed-in tariffs.

Feed-in tariff: Who pays for it?

In the past, in order to encourage solar electricity, many programmes were financed through government budgets. The disadvantage of this method has been that if the state money ran out, or was curtailed, the programme could be stopped. Therefore, some feed-in tariff models take a completely different approach. In Germany in 2007, the utilities pay a premium tariff of between Ð0.38/kWh and Ð0.54/kWh (depending on the size and type of system) for solar electricity from newly-installed PV arrays. The utilities are authorised to pass on this extra cost, spread equally, to all electricity consumers through their regular electricity bill. This means that the feed-in programme works independently from the state economy, and the extra cost which each electricity consumer has to pay, in order to increase the share of renewable energy in the national electricity portfolio, is very small. In Germany, the monthly extra costs per consumer due to the premium tariff for solar electricity are currently Ð0.20. The result is also that every electricity consumer contributes to the restructuring of the national electricity supply network, away from a fossil-based one, and towards a sustainable and independent structure.

Feed-in tariff: The driver of cost reduction

The costs for solar electricity have been reduced consistently since the technology was first introduced to the market. Even so, in most cases solar electricity cannot yet compete with grid electricity generated from fossil fuels. Whilst it is expected that prices for electricity generated from fossil fuels will keep rising, it is still very important to maintain a strong momentum in bringing down the costs for solar electricity.

For this reason, the feed-in tariff in Germany is reduced each year by 5%, but only for newly-installed PV systems. Once a PV system is connected to the grid, the tariff remains constant over the complete period of 20 years. Through this 5% annual reduction, there is therefore constant pressure on the PV industry to bring the costs for solar electricity down by 5% each year in order to keep the market alive. At the same time, the customer can easily calculate the return on investment in their PV system. This planning security is an essential element of the success story of the feed-in tariff.



Feed-in tariff: The driver of high-quality solar electricity systems

Many solar electricity support programmes are based on an investment subsidy in order to reduce the barrier of high up-front capital costs. The drawback of such an approach, is the missing incentive to invest in high-quality solar electricity systems and to ensure their efficient operation and maintenance. If the customer receives a fixed payment per installed capacity unit, there is no incentive to go for high-quality products, which usually means a higher price, or to operate the system at the highest possible level. With the feed-in tariff, the return on investment is heavily dependent on the performance of the PV system. The customer gets his return on investment with each kWh that is fed into the grid. Therefore, maximising the power output of the PV system over its whole lifetime is essential to the customer, ensuring that the PV system will be well operated and maintained.

The feed-in tariff is the only system that rewards the generation of solar electricity appropriately and not simply for installing a system.

Feed-in tariff: The driver of easier financing

The up-front costs for solar electricity systems are a clear barrier to wider market penetration. As already explained, investment subsidies have been implemented in many countries in order to overcome this barrier, but this approach has significant disadvantages. A feed-in tariff guaranteed by law over a sufficient period of time, serves as an excellent security for the customer’s bank in order to finance the system. The PV system itself, combined with the guaranteed feed-in tariff over 20 years in Germany, is usually sufficient to receive a loan from the bank. Of course, it took some time until banks became familiar with PV systems and the implications of the feed-in tariff, but nowadays the financing of PV systems via a bank loan in Germany is no longer an unusual and time-consuming activity, but very common and straightforward.

The feed-in tariff needs strong co-drivers

Simple and quick administration
There are countries in Europe with an economically attractive feed-in tariff in place but without a viable PV market. How can this happen? The feed-in tariff needs a strong partner in order to release its full power; this is a simple and quick approval process. Even if an excellent feed-in tariff is in place, but the procedures for the approval of PV installations and their connection to the grid take many months, perhaps even more than a year, the number of potential customers will remain limited. The customer’s effort in dealing with administrative and licensing issues therefore needs to be kept to a minimum. A complex and time-consuming administration and licensing process, is a clear indication that an electricity market has not yet made substantial progress towards liberalisation.

Guaranteed grid access
Given its major social and environmental advantages, solar electricity should be given priority and guaranteed access to the grid. In many countries, there is an enormous over-capacity in conventional electricity generation, with a range of power sources – from fossil fuels through to renewables – all jostling for the right to be fed into the grid. Solar electricity generators must be guaranteed automatic access, because of their high ecological and technical value, including support for local grid stability.

Government and industry commitment
Governments that have taken steps to broaden their energy supply base with an abundant clean technology, such as photovoltaics, will also be able to count themselves among the winners. Such diversification not only brings benefits in terms of greater security of energy supply, but also leads to wider environmental benefits though the deployment of zero-emission technologies that, according to the predictions presented here, will make a significant impact on global CO2 emissions over the coming decades.

At present, the nations of the industrialised world vary greatly in their commitment to solar electricity. While countries such as Germany and Japan, as well as others in Europe, have moved forward from discussion to implementing the necessary support schemes, others have actually cut back their solar electricity programmes.

Both industry and governments, however, will have to expand their respective commitments to the solar sector if the potential identified in this report is to be fully exploited. On the industry side, continuing and accelerated investment in the expansion of production facilities is needed in order to meet the demands of the market and to ensure that the cost, and ultimately the price, of the technology is brought down through production up-scaling and introduction of new manufacturing techniques and materials. On the government side, commitment to the solar electricity sector in many countries needs to be extended through such actions as the introduction of premium tariffs, and the adaptation of building regulations to provide a greater incentive for the deployment of solar electricity systems in the built environment.

Like every other industry, the solar electricity sector will only move forward if sufficient investment is committed to provide for its expansion. Over the past few years, the solar industry has been very successful in drawing the attention of the financial world to this young and dynamic market. A ‘solar boom’ is still evident in the investment community. Both industry and governments need to ensure that the financial world maintains interest in renewables, in order to make sure that the necessary financing is in place to keep up the current rate of expansion.

In summary, there is no doubt that the global electricity business will undergo a significant expansion over the next few decades. All indicators point in that direction. Solar power will certainly play an ever more significant role in the supply mix. However, the extent to which solar electricity will make its impact on that market will depend very much on ensuring that the potential winners in this business are made fully aware of the opportunities available.

Those opportunities will only be realised if both industry and governments continue to strengthen their commitment to broadening the energy supply base and, through the deployment of solar electricity technologies, offer greater choice to customers. This will have the added benefit of demystifying the energy process and giving individuals greater control over the provision of their electricity needs. This in itself constitutes a revolution in the energy market.

International policy on PV solar power

Current policy in the European Union

The most important European support measure for PV is Directive 2001/77/EC on the promotion of electricity produced from renewable energy sources, known as the Renewable Electricity Directive. This set a target to double the share of renewable energy from 6% to 12% of gross energy consumption in Europe by 2010 and to increase the proportion of renewable electricity to 22%.

In order to reach these goals, the Directive has set indicative targets for each EU Member State, requiring them to produce National Action Plans and set their own targets for renewable electricity. To achieve this, they have been allowed to establish support schemes for the promotion of renewable energy sources. Furthermore, they have been required to eliminate administrative barriers in relation to authorisation procedures, to grant fair access to the grid to renewable electricity and to ensure guarantees of origins for renewable electricity.

Proposed legislation on renewable energy

In January 2007, the European Commission issued a Communication on a Renewable Energy Road Map as part of a comprehensive Energy Package. This Communication
aims to further promote the development of renewable energy sources in Europe by setting a target for a 20% share of renewables in the EU‘s energy mix by 2020. The proposed legislation will set legally-binding targets for renewable energy in each Member State, which will then be required to establish National Action Plans outlining their specific objectives for each of the renewable energy sectors (fuel, electricity and heating/cooling).

Full details of the proposed Directive have not yet been agreed, in particular whether it will require Member States to set sectoral targets for electricity, heating/cooling and bio–fuels. This would be particularly important for the promotion of renewable energy sources, since it would create a secure and stable framework for investment. Nonetheless, the new Directive is expected to improve the existing provisions of the Renewable Electricity Directive, and not weaken it.

A debate is also continuing in the European Union about the possible harmonisation of support schemes for renewable electricity. EPIA believes that such a harmonisation
would hinder rather than foster the development of renewable sources of electricity.

Finally, PV could be positively affected by forthcoming legislation (announced in the Communication on the Prospects for the internal gas and electricity market COM (2006) 841) on the liberalisation of the internal electricity market. More effective measures to ‘unbundle’ ownership of the distribution and transmission systems from the large power utilities would open up new market opportunities for the PV industry.

Current policy in the United States

Solar Power Manufacturing
Over the past two years, PV manufacturing facilities have diversified and expanded greatly, providing a silver lining to the shortage in silicon. The best example of this diversification
is the expansion of thin film solar cells. The US leads the world in thin film production, with nearly half the global output. Venture capital is also flooding into the solar industry, especially to third-generation and nanotechnologies.

Federal Tax Credit
Strong support exists within Congress for a long-term extension of the Solar Tax Credit, which was first introduced in 2005. The credit provides a tax incentive for investors in PV systems, in much the same way as a similar credit has encouraged a booming US wind power industry. Legislation already introduced in the House and Senate would extend the tax credit for eight years and remove the cap (upper limit) for residential buildings. The prospects for an early extension of the tax credit are strong.

The President’s Solar America Initiative
The Department of Energy has released details of the „President‘s Solar America Initiative,“ proposing a large funding increase for solar energy research. This initiative aims to make solar competitive with existing sources of electricity by 2015. The programme also aims to deploy 5 - 10 GWp of capacity, which is in line with the growth projected by industry and promoted by state incentives, by the same target date. By 2030 up to 70 – 100 GWp of capacity could be installed, roughly the same as the current electricity generation of New York and California combined. 40% of new electricity generation capacity would be from PV by 2030.

As a result of the Initiative, and the popularity of solar power within Congress, the federal budget for solar research and development has grown significantly over the past two years. The Initiative will place emphasis on funding industry-led partnerships to accelerate market-ready photovoltaics with a new focus on manufacturing and production.

State Policies
In the last couple of years, a handful of states have passed laws promoting the large-scale adoption of solar power. Led by California, New Jersey, Arizona, Pennsylvania and now Maryland, the states have currently committed to fund the installation of over 10 GWp of solar electricity in the next 15 years. These programmes will deliver billions of dollars in subsidies to residential and commercial solar projects and represent significant long-term incentives to the solar industry in the United States.

In San Fransisco (California), the local authority has recently chosen to establish its own energy supply company, Community Choice Energy. The city plans to create one of the world’s largest urban solar facilities and install a total of 360 MW of renewable energy, enough to power over half of the urban area’s needs by 2017.

Current policy in Japan
The encouragement of solar PV in Japan has come through a range of legal measures, national strategies and frameworks implemented by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and other government ministries and agencies. Japan’s target for the cumulative capacity of PV systems to be installed by 2010 is 4,820 MW. METI has been actively driving forward measures for PV deployment and R&D programmes to achieve this target.

The New Energy Law of 1997 defined the responsibility of each sector - national and local government, energy consumers, energy suppliers and energy system manufacturers - to introduce and expand new and renewable energy sources. Under the Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS) law of 2002, energy suppliers are obliged to purchase an increasing percentage of renewable energy each year. In addition, the Japanese government introduced a Basic Energy Plan in 2003 in order to support these policies.

In 2004, three projections for Japanese energy supply up to the year 2030 were released, including a PV Roadmap to 2030 (PV2030). This outlined the technological development of PV systems required to achieve larger scale dissemination in the longer term. In 2005, the government endorsed the Kyoto Protocol Target Achievement Plan, which again emphasised the large-scale deployment of new and renewable energy as one of the countermeasures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions up to 2010.

In 2006, METI announced the New National Energy Strategy, in which the promotion of PV systems is established as one of the major pillars. Two other recent laws on promoting measures to cope with global warming, and the promotion of green purchasing, have also been introduced to promote new and renewable energy.

Current policy in China
The most important development for renewable energy in China, including solar PV, was the introduction at the beginning of 2006 of the Renewable Energy Law. Among its main provisions are:

✜ Power companies must enter into grid-connection agreements with renewable power generation enterprises that have legally obtained an administrative licence, and purchase their output.
✜ The price for electricity from renewable energy power projects is determined by the State Council according to the principle of being “beneficial to the development and utilisation of renewable energy and being economic and reasonable”, with adjustments on the basis of the future development of the technology.
✜ The price paid for renewable power should reflect the difference between its current cost and that of “conventional” energy sources.
✜ The government will support the construction of independent renewable power systems in areas not covered by the power grid to provide a service for local industry and households.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), which has overall responsibility for energy policy in China, made a further announcement about the price to be paid for PV electricity under the Renewable Energy Law. This determined that the price level laid down by the State Council would be based on the principle of “reasonable costs plus reasonable profits”, and that any additional costs incurred by PV generators, including operations and maintenance and grid-connection charges, would be settled by a tariff surcharge levied on electricity consumers. Both building-integrated PV systems and large-scale desert PV power plants will be subject to this “feed-in tariff” policy.

For off-grid central PV power plants in villages, the initial investment will be paid by the government (household systems are not included) and the portion of the cost of operation and maintenance that exceeds the revenue from electricity fees (including the cost of renewing the storage batteries) will be apportioned to the nationwide electricity network by increasing the electricity tariff.

However, another important point is made in the legislation. End-users (whether grid-connected or off-grid) are expected to pay for their electricity according to the “same network, same price” principle; that is to say, the electricity tariff paid by PV power users should be the same as the electricity tariff paid by grid-connected power users in the same area.

Practical problems
Grid-connected systems

Many PV power systems capable of being connected to the grid have been built in China, with capacities ranging from several kWp to 1 MWp, but in no case has a feed-in tariff, calculated according to “reasonable costs plus reasonable profits”, been implemented and no system has as yet been permitted by the power companies to connect to the grid as a commercial venture. This is very different from the situation with wind energy. Wind farms have been built profitably by developers for many years (without needing capital investment from the state), and power companies have accepted these and accordingly executed the “feed-in tariff” policy.

To encourage electricity companies to accept PV output unequivocally, and purchase the power for a fair feed-in tariff price, the following changes are needed:

✜ Reasonable feed-in tariff prices should be established (for off-grid plants, the reasonable cost of operation and maintenance needs to be estimated).
✜ Standards for construction and testing, as well as market access rules, need to be established.
✜ Electricity companies should accept PV power and purchase it at a reasonable feed-in tariff price.
✜ The additional cost of generation needs to be spread across the national electric network.

Off-grid systems

Problems have also occurred over payments under the Renewable Energy Law for more than 720 PV plants installed under the Township Electrification Program. A mechanism needs to be urgently developed to incorporate the renewable electricity tariff into the nationwide electricity network, so the accumulated funds can be used for the later-stage operation and maintenance of these rural PV plants. Otherwise, their investment value of several thousand million Yuan will be wasted. Unless action is taken, a similar crisis is likely to face the Power Transmission to Village Program, which is about to be implemented.

What this experience shows is that it is not enough to introduce a Renewable Energy Law without considering the implementation of its details, especially the correct level of feed-in tariff and cost sharing.

 
 
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